Todd Wenning over at Monley Fool has just named SBUX as the worst stock pick for 2008. He lists a few reason, and draws a correlation between Howard and Michael Jordan, and although I disagree, I think he makes some valid points for why the stock won’t rebound in ’08.
“Diminished competative advantages” and “Watered down experience” are his two reasons. They are both valid concerns, and in all honesty, they’re what I think Howard noticed not being taken care of while he was gone that made him step back. Wenning, brings up a great point that I wondered about when I read, “Pour Your Heart Into It” a few years ago;
According to Schultz’s 1997 book Pour Your Heart Into It, franchising was “almost a forbidden word to Starbucks.” “We refused to franchise,” Schultz said, “Although it would have been tempting to share costs with franchisees, I didn’t want to risk losing control of the all-important link to the consumer.”
Ironically enough, just one year later, Starbucks introduced its first “licensed” location at Albertson’s grocery stores. Even though licensed locations in stores such as Target (NYSE: TGT) and Safeway (NYSE: SWY) helped Starbucks expand and kept financial costs down over the past decade, the initiative may end up costing the company brand value in the long run. These locations, after all, are not the typical Starbucks “third place,” but simply “refueling stations” for sluggish shoppers who need a caffeine boost before spending money.
I think that fixing this is priority number one for not only the SBUX stock, but also to create a better astmosphere to work in and make your third place again.
How do you think the stock will go this year? Howard’s back, McDonalds is coming on strong, and the price of milk has increased… what will this all mean?
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